Top Tier (3 to 9 day ship build tokens)

Glenn Griffith
Glenn Griffith
Minor Nuisance
Joined Oct 2012 Posts: 272
Just curious as to what people out there are getting out of the top chest.  It promises 3 to 9 days of ship build tokens.  I've rebeemed it three times now and have gotten one 1 day token and one 2 day token all three times.  Law of statistical probability says that aint right.  Curious how heavily weighted towards the lowest possible prize it actually is?
 
  • AnEyeForAnEye
    AnEyeForAnEye
    Unicorn Overlord
    Joined Feb 2014 Posts: 6,649
    Just curious as to what people out there are getting out of the top chest.  It promises 3 to 9 days of ship build tokens.  I've rebeemed it three times now and have gotten one 1 day token and one 2 day token all three times.  Law of statistical probability says that aint right.  Curious how heavily weighted towards the lowest possible prize it actually is?
     
    This has been discussed and polled out many time in the past few weeks.

    The averaged is roughly weighted as follows:

    80% of time = 2+1

    15% of time = 2+2

    5% of time = 2+7


    No automatic alt text available.
  • Charlie Pugwash
    Charlie Pugwash
    Master Tactician
    Joined Feb 2013 Posts: 2,228
    Same here, but that's about what I expected. The same was frequently true of the old one after all. If it's set to be more likely that 3 day's come up, then the laws of statistical probability say that's what most of us will be getting.

    The laws of probability would also guarantee that some people would be getting all 3 day results even if it where actually more likely to get the 9 day result than any other- because someone is always going to have bad luck in a large enough sample of people.

    And it's those people who post to the forums- after all, can you really imagine a thread complaining about getting 27 days of build tokens from T5 chests this month?
    • "Best of luck, Captains! And may the odds be ever in your favour..."


    • Raids Boycotted: Hellstrike, Lightning Carrier, Enforcer, Neptune- and at this rate, the entire upcoming Reaver raid series.

    • First played: Shortly After Revenge Raid 2

    image
  • Laredo
    Laredo
    Moderator
    Joined Dec 2011 Posts: 14,707
    Just curious as to what people out there are getting out of the top chest.  It promises 3 to 9 days of ship build tokens.  I've rebeemed it three times now and have gotten one 1 day token and one 2 day token all three times.  Law of statistical probability says that aint right.  Curious how heavily weighted towards the lowest possible prize it actually is?
     
    Law of statistics doesn't apply to an online game where they can set the odds.
  • michaelg21
    michaelg21
    Strike-force Captain
    Joined Oct 2011 Posts: 743
    Yeah Laredo-the Rogue Crews are the perfect example of that BS where they change the odds constantly-NOT in our favor.
  • brew_master_1
    brew_master_1
    Minor Nuisance
    Joined Apr 2016 Posts: 167
    Out of 3 times, I've got 2+1, 2+1, and 2+2
  • tdc012
    tdc012
    Minor Nuisance
    Joined Oct 2011 Posts: 133
    edited 6 Dec 2017, 3:08AM

    "May the odds be ever in your favor" does not apply to Battle Pirates.

  • tdc012
    tdc012
    Minor Nuisance
    Joined Oct 2011 Posts: 133
    edited 6 Dec 2017, 3:07AM
    tdc012 said:
    "May the odds be ever in your favor" does not apply to Battle Pirates.
    I have no idea why that is in all caps, not yelling or anything here.
  • mrdumb
    mrdumb
    Potential Threat
    Joined Jul 2017 Posts: 38
    I have never received more than 3 days of tokens for that chest on any of my accounts.
    Started playing 7/7/2017.
    FM T2 twice on 7/22/2017.
    FM T3 on 8/21/2017.
    FM T4 on 9/10/2017.
  • Glenn Griffith
    Glenn Griffith
    Minor Nuisance
    Joined Oct 2012 Posts: 272
    Laredo said:
    Just curious as to what people out there are getting out of the top chest.  It promises 3 to 9 days of ship build tokens.  I've rebeemed it three times now and have gotten one 1 day token and one 2 day token all three times.  Law of statistical probability says that aint right.  Curious how heavily weighted towards the lowest possible prize it actually is?
     
    Law of statistics doesn't apply to an online game where they can set the odds.
    It applies if it were fair....hence why I asked if it was weighted.  Surprise Surprise, it is, in glitcheyes favor.
  • Glenn Griffith
    Glenn Griffith
    Minor Nuisance
    Joined Oct 2012 Posts: 272
    Same here, but that's about what I expected. The same was frequently true of the old one after all. If it's set to be more likely that 3 day's come up, then the laws of statistical probability say that's what most of us will be getting.

    The laws of probability would also guarantee that some people would be getting all 3 day results even if it where actually more likely to get the 9 day result than any other- because someone is always going to have bad luck in a large enough sample of people.

    And it's those people who post to the forums- after all, can you really imagine a thread complaining about getting 27 days of build tokens from T5 chests this month?
    Not sure where you studied statistical probability....they don't account for "bad luck" since it doesnt exist.  Odds are odds, if there is even a slight possibility of a better prize, EVERYONE will get it EVENTUALLY.   Oh, and I wasn't complaining, I was asking a question.

  • Storm_Troopers
    Storm_Troopers
    Potential Threat
    Joined Apr 2012 Posts: 54
    Just curious as to what people out there are getting out of the top chest.  It promises 3 to 9 days of ship build tokens.  I've rebeemed it three times now and have gotten one 1 day token and one 2 day token all three times.  Law of statistical probability says that aint right.  Curious how heavily weighted towards the lowest possible prize it actually is?
     
    This has been discussed and polled out many time in the past few weeks.

    The averaged is roughly weighted as follows:

    80% of time = 2+1

    15% of time = 2+2

    5% of time = 2+7


    And what about the rest of tokens that are between thoses ? "From 3 to 9" Tell me if I'm wrong but there are 7 numbers between 3 and 9, (3,4,5,6,7,8,9) I know why its not often giving something else than a 3 days, but when I READ the DETAILS on the legendary chest I understand it like this is working this way :
    -  1/7 chance to get a 3 day
    -  1/7 chance to get a 4 day
    -  1/7 chance to get a 5 day
    -  1/7 chance to get a 6 day
    -  ....  
    And so on .. I think this way would be "logical". Its supposed to be RANDOM. Once you include a chance of drop rate like 80% for a 3 day and 20% for any item similar to this I think it is not "RANDOM" anymore. Then change the Description of the Legendary chest and say " High chances to get 3 days and low chances to get 9 days" like you've done for the Rogue Crews. Because there are Legendary Crews, Elite crews,... In the case of the chest we're just talking about tokens, and not "legendary" tokens. So why the drop rate is similar to them if the "Description" about chest and Rogues Crews are different ?
  • Charlie Pugwash
    Charlie Pugwash
    Master Tactician
    Joined Feb 2013 Posts: 2,228
    edited 6 Dec 2017, 1:33PM
    Same here, but that's about what I expected. The same was frequently true of the old one after all. If it's set to be more likely that 3 day's come up, then the laws of statistical probability say that's what most of us will be getting.

    The laws of probability would also guarantee that some people would be getting all 3 day results even if it where actually more likely to get the 9 day result than any other- because someone is always going to have bad luck in a large enough sample of people.

    And it's those people who post to the forums- after all, can you really imagine a thread complaining about getting 27 days of build tokens from T5 chests this month?
    Not sure where you studied statistical probability....they don't account for "bad luck" since it doesnt exist.  Odds are odds, if there is even a slight possibility of a better prize, EVERYONE will get it EVENTUALLY.   Oh, and I wasn't complaining, I was asking a question.

    Hmm, I probably didn't explain what I meant well enough.

     Basic probability dictates that in a sample where a large number of people are making a small number of tests of the outcome of a random event, some of those people will get an outcome or series of outcomes that would be unlikely for a general person. If the outcome or outcomes in question has/have a probability of 1 in 1,000 of happening, there are more than enough BP players to get plenty of people with that outcome or outcomes.

    You are correct to say that outcomes will even out over time, since there aren't enough BP players left to make it very likely that any 1 in 1,000,000 probability outcomes will actually occur, but we haven't had nearly long enough to expect everyone's outcomes to even out yet. "Eventually" in a situation like this is, at a rough guess since I can't be bothered to go work out the percentiles, more likely to be about half a year or so.
    • "Best of luck, Captains! And may the odds be ever in your favour..."


    • Raids Boycotted: Hellstrike, Lightning Carrier, Enforcer, Neptune- and at this rate, the entire upcoming Reaver raid series.

    • First played: Shortly After Revenge Raid 2

    image
  • Captain Pants
    Captain Pants
    Skilled Warrior
    Joined Aug 2014 Posts: 453
    All I know is that if I ever get a 2+7 I will eat my hat.
  • Clay Aaron
    Clay Aaron
    Potential Threat
    Joined Apr 2015 Posts: 43
    Remeber, if you pray to RNGESUS he may grant your wish of 9 days 
  • St.Serg
    St.Serg
    Minor Nuisance
    Joined Mar 2015 Posts: 116
    yes, kixeye have a very special random generator. "Up to 15k of Uranium" means 3k most of time. This is not bad, because zero is "up to 15k" too
    image
  • Mike Halter
    Mike Halter
    Potential Threat
    Joined Dec 2012 Posts: 59
    A 1 day & 2 day each  week  SUCKS .
  • worf1128
    worf1128
    Minor Nuisance
    Joined Aug 2013 Posts: 108
    Laredo said:
    Just curious as to what people out there are getting out of the top chest.  It promises 3 to 9 days of ship build tokens.  I've rebeemed it three times now and have gotten one 1 day token and one 2 day token all three times.  Law of statistical probability says that aint right.  Curious how heavily weighted towards the lowest possible prize it actually is?
     
    Law of statistics doesn't apply to an online game where they can set the odds.
    Must say Laredo didnt like the answer you gave me last week on the subject but this was the most honest reply any of the mods have made regarding this subject

  • Templar614
    Templar614
    Moderator
    Joined Jul 2012 Posts: 10,306
    edited 7 Dec 2017, 3:53AM
    Just curious as to what people out there are getting out of the top chest.  It promises 3 to 9 days of ship build tokens.  I've rebeemed it three times now and have gotten one 1 day token and one 2 day token all three times.  Law of statistical probability says that aint right.  Curious how heavily weighted towards the lowest possible prize it actually is?
     
    This has been discussed and polled out many time in the past few weeks.

    The averaged is roughly weighted as follows:

    80% of time = 2+1

    15% of time = 2+2

    5% of time = 2+7


    And what about the rest of tokens that are between thoses ? "From 3 to 9" Tell me if I'm wrong but there are 7 numbers between 3 and 9, (3,4,5,6,7,8,9) I know why its not often giving something else than a 3 days, but when I READ the DETAILS on the legendary chest I understand it like this is working this way :
    -  1/7 chance to get a 3 day
    -  1/7 chance to get a 4 day
    -  1/7 chance to get a 5 day
    -  1/7 chance to get a 6 day
    -  ....  
    And so on .. I think this way would be "logical". Its supposed to be RANDOM. Once you include a chance of drop rate like 80% for a 3 day and 20% for any item similar to this I think it is not "RANDOM" anymore. Then change the Description of the Legendary chest and say " High chances to get 3 days and low chances to get 9 days" like you've done for the Rogue Crews. Because there are Legendary Crews, Elite crews,... In the case of the chest we're just talking about tokens, and not "legendary" tokens. So why the drop rate is similar to them if the "Description" about chest and Rogues Crews are different ?
    For starters there are only 3 possible token pay outs.

    You cannot win 5, 6, 7, or 8 days of tokens. Currently the only possible rewards are a 2 day token plus either a 1 day, 2 day, or 7 day token.

    It was never said to be statistically random. You cannot assume there is an equal chance to win each prize as that has never been explicitly stated by Kixeye.

    Expect the 3 days of tokens to be far more common than the 4 or 9 days.
  • CaptainWho-CW or doc
    CaptainWho-CW or doc
    Minor Nuisance
    Joined Aug 2012 Posts: 282

    Myself and over a dozen players I play with daily have only received 3 days total from the T5 chest since it was introduced including today's FM. At thia point i guess I'll roll a bullseye brigade before i get more than 3 days from this chest

    I am not bound to win, but I am bound to be true. I am not bound to succeed, but I am bound to live by the light that I have. I must stand with anybody that stands right, and stand with him while he is right, and part with him when he goes wrong.
  • chunnder
    chunnder
    Potential Threat
    Joined Nov 2017 Posts: 40
    ever since the change I've gotten 2+! day every week ..... the randomness is astounding ! .....  
  • chunnder
    chunnder
    Potential Threat
    Joined Nov 2017 Posts: 40
    chunnder said:
    ever since the change I've gotten 2+! day every week ..... the randomness is astounding ! .....  
    Should have read 2 = 1 day
  • Rick Swank
    Rick Swank
    Minor Nuisance
    Joined Dec 2012 Posts: 257
    Every week since the new FM started all I get in any chest is the minimum rewards.  T5 is 1 x 2 days and 1 x 1 days.  No idea what random roll they are talking about, but better chances wining a Jack pot in VEGAS.
  • robin.piotrowski.10
    robin.piotrowski.10
    Greenhorn
    Joined May 2015 Posts: 3
    Not random at all   ... rigged to reduce ship build tokens as payback for getting the new Shipyard.     Of course, the new shipyard is a "Limited" use to two hull types.   Limited is the whole key to BP these days.
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