Just curious as to what people out there are getting out of the top chest. It promises 3 to 9 days of ship build tokens. I've rebeemed it three times now and have gotten one 1 day token and one 2 day token all three times. Law of statistical probability says that aint right. Curious how heavily weighted towards the lowest possible prize it actually is?

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This discussion has been closed.

The averaged is roughly weighted as follows:

80% of time = 2+1

15% of time = 2+2

5% of time = 2+7

The laws of probability would also guarantee that some people would be getting all 3 day results even if it where actually more likely to get the 9 day result than any other- because someone is always going to have bad luck in a large enough sample of people.

And it's those people who post to the forums- after all, can you really imagine a thread complaining about getting 27 days of build tokens from T5 chests this month?

"Best of luck, Captains! And may the odds be ever in your favour..."

Raids Boycotted: Hellstrike, Lightning Carrier, Enforcer, Neptune- and at this rate, the entire upcoming Reaver raid series.

First played: Shortly After Revenge Raid 2

## "May the odds be ever in your favor" does not apply to Battle Pirates.

- 1/7 chance to get a 3 day

- 1/7 chance to get a 4 day

- 1/7 chance to get a 5 day

- 1/7 chance to get a 6 day

- ....

And so on .. I think this way would be "logical". Its supposed to be RANDOM. Once you include a chance of drop rate like 80% for a 3 day and 20% for any item similar to this I think it is not "RANDOM" anymore. Then change the Description of the Legendary chest and say " High chances to get 3 days and low chances to get 9 days" like you've done for the Rogue Crews. Because there are Legendary Crews, Elite crews,... In the case of the chest we're just talking about tokens, and not "legendary" tokens. So why the drop rate is similar to them if the "Description" about chest and Rogues Crews are different ?

Basic probability dictates that in a sample where a large number of people are making a small number of tests of the outcome of a random event, some of those people will get an outcome or series of outcomes that would be unlikely for a general person. If the outcome or outcomes in question has/have a probability of 1 in 1,000 of happening, there are more than enough BP players to get plenty of people with that outcome or outcomes.

You are correct to say that outcomes will even out over time, since there aren't enough BP players left to make it very likely that any 1 in 1,000,000 probability outcomes will actually occur, but we haven't had nearly long enough to expect everyone's outcomes to even out yet. "Eventually" in a situation like this is, at a rough guess since I can't be bothered to go work out the percentiles, more likely to be about half a year or so.

"Best of luck, Captains! And may the odds be ever in your favour..."

Raids Boycotted: Hellstrike, Lightning Carrier, Enforcer, Neptune- and at this rate, the entire upcoming Reaver raid series.

First played: Shortly After Revenge Raid 2

You cannot win 5, 6, 7, or 8 days of tokens. Currently the only possible rewards are a 2 day token plus either a 1 day, 2 day, or 7 day token.

It was never said to be statistically random. You cannot assume there is an equal chance to win each prize as that has never been explicitly stated by Kixeye.

Expect the 3 days of tokens to be far more common than the 4 or 9 days.

Myself and over a dozen players I play with daily have only received 3 days total from the T5 chest since it was introduced including today's FM. At thia point i guess I'll roll a bullseye brigade before i get more than 3 days from this chest

Improvise, adapt, and overcome

Learn from your mistake

Accept nothing challenge everything

I expect the next one by late April-mid May.....

Just saying, it is a weighted random... which is a type of random.

It is the same as if you were to randomly select a sock and there are 8 black socks and 4 white socks. Still random as to what sock you get, just not completely even.

necro thread closed

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